Ecuador_state Results

combine estimates

Stacking Estimate (95% CI) SC Estimate (95% CI) Time trend Estimate (95% CI) Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
9_1 0.86 (0.6, 1.21) 0.85 (0.6, 1.22) 0.88 (0.52, 1.45) 0.72 (0.42, 1.19) 0.83 (0.53, 1.26)
9_10 1.29 (0.85, 1.99) 1.25 (0.82, 1.87) 1.31 (0.85, 2.04) 1.34 (0.88, 2.04) 1.32 (0.89, 2.01)
9_11 1.07 (0.89, 1.31) 1.07 (0.89, 1.29) 1.35 (1, 1.81) 1.2 (0.89, 1.62) 1.12 (0.85, 1.46)
9_12 0.69 (0.57, 0.87) 0.69 (0.57, 0.86) 0.58 (0.41, 0.84) 0.56 (0.39, 0.79) 0.54 (0.39, 0.73)
9_13 0.88 (0.51, 1.45) 0.85 (0.48, 1.35) 0.93 (0.57, 1.54) 0.78 (0.48, 1.26) 0.91 (0.59, 1.38)
9_14 1.25 (1.01, 1.57) 1.25 (1.03, 1.52) 1.28 (0.95, 1.71) 0.69 (0.51, 0.93) 1.19 (0.93, 1.51)
9_15 0.8 (0.66, 1) 0.8 (0.66, 1) 0.85 (0.62, 1.16) 0.81 (0.58, 1.13) 0.66 (0.5, 0.87)
9_16 0.86 (0.66, 1.1) 0.86 (0.67, 1.1) 0.85 (0.6, 1.19) 0.81 (0.57, 1.14) 0.76 (0.56, 1.04)
9_17 0.57 (0.43, 0.77) 0.58 (0.44, 0.76) 0.53 (0.34, 0.82) 0.48 (0.31, 0.74) 0.51 (0.36, 0.72)
9_19 0.92 (0.55, 1.88) 0.78 (0.53, 1.1) 1.38 (0.93, 2.03) 1.36 (0.9, 2.03) 1.62 (1.02, 2.6)
9_2 1.14 (0.76, 1.71) 1.01 (0.72, 1.4) 1.15 (0.77, 1.73) 1.07 (0.72, 1.59) 1.01 (0.67, 1.45)
9_20 1.03 (0.86, 1.24) 1.03 (0.86, 1.24) 0.76 (0.54, 1.1) 0.68 (0.47, 0.98) 0.71 (0.52, 0.96)
9_21 0.86 (0.57, 1.08) 0.86 (0.67, 1.07) 0.65 (0.46, 0.92) 0.54 (0.38, 0.77) 0.57 (0.43, 0.75)
9_22 1.08 (0.72, 1.67) 0.76 (0.5, 1.14) 1.1 (0.75, 1.67) 1.09 (0.74, 1.67) 0.86 (0.61, 1.19)
9_23 0.8 (0.49, 1.39) 0.69 (0.47, 1.02) 0.82 (0.48, 1.41) 0.45 (0.28, 0.71) 0.72 (0.5, 1.07)
9_24 0.74 (0.57, 0.97) 0.73 (0.57, 0.94) 0.93 (0.66, 1.31) 0.84 (0.6, 1.16) 0.81 (0.59, 1.1)
9_25 0.7 (0.53, 0.95) 0.7 (0.53, 0.93) 0.84 (0.56, 1.25) 0.7 (0.48, 1.03) 0.74 (0.53, 1.03)
9_26 0.78 (0.58, 1.07) 0.78 (0.6, 1.07) 0.74 (0.49, 1.11) 0.98 (0.66, 1.4) 1.18 (0.73, 1.84)
9_27 1.01 (0.82, 1.25) 1.01 (0.82, 1.25) 0.66 (0.46, 0.93) 0.49 (0.35, 0.66) 0.73 (0.57, 0.92)
9_28 0.69 (0.54, 0.96) 0.68 (0.53, 0.92) 0.88 (0.62, 1.26) 0.91 (0.64, 1.29) 0.82 (0.61, 1.11)
9_29 0.96 (0.63, 1.46) 0.95 (0.63, 1.43) 1.08 (0.65, 1.76) 1.01 (0.61, 1.66) 0.99 (0.63, 1.55)
9_30 0.82 (0.66, 1.05) 0.82 (0.67, 1.04) 0.83 (0.59, 1.19) 0.66 (0.47, 0.92) 0.7 (0.53, 0.92)
9_31 0.91 (0.54, 1.49) 0.89 (0.54, 1.38) 0.94 (0.58, 1.55) 0.9 (0.55, 1.49) 0.88 (0.57, 1.35)
9_32 0.66 (0.46, 0.95) 0.66 (0.47, 0.9) 0.73 (0.42, 1.23) 0.53 (0.33, 0.82) 0.64 (0.43, 0.92)
9_4 0.85 (0.6, 1.21) 0.85 (0.61, 1.18) 0.93 (0.57, 1.53) 0.9 (0.55, 1.48) 0.79 (0.54, 1.16)
9_5 1.04 (0.72, 1.45) 1.05 (0.75, 1.45) 0.87 (0.56, 1.35) 0.91 (0.59, 1.36) 0.84 (0.57, 1.24)
9_7 0.91 (0.54, 1.12) 0.92 (0.75, 1.13) 0.96 (0.73, 1.26) 1.02 (0.77, 1.38) 0.61 (0.46, 0.83)
9_8 1.6 (1.13, 1.98) 1.62 (1.32, 1.99) 2.27 (1.61, 3.2) 1.29 (0.93, 1.76) 1.58 (1.22, 2.04)
9_9 0.98 (0.82, 1.18) 0.98 (0.82, 1.17) 0.96 (0.71, 1.31) 0.9 (0.65, 1.25) 0.97 (0.77, 1.2)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups Synthetic Controls Time trend Time trend (no offset) STL+PCA
9_1 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
9_10 0.431 0.000 0.209 0.360
9_11 0.972 0.000 0.028 0.000
9_12 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
9_13 0.330 0.524 0.147 0.000
9_14 0.828 0.172 0.000 0.000
9_15 0.987 0.000 0.013 0.000
9_16 0.975 0.000 0.025 0.000
9_17 0.937 0.063 0.000 0.000
9_19 0.614 0.371 0.000 0.014
9_2 0.004 0.800 0.196 0.000
9_20 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
9_21 0.961 0.000 0.039 0.000
9_22 0.000 0.000 0.959 0.041
9_23 0.000 0.822 0.000 0.178
9_24 0.951 0.000 0.049 0.000
9_25 0.860 0.000 0.000 0.140
9_26 0.888 0.112 0.000 0.000
9_27 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
9_28 0.908 0.000 0.000 0.092
9_29 0.701 0.000 0.000 0.299
9_30 0.966 0.034 0.000 0.000
9_31 0.214 0.239 0.547 0.000
9_32 0.866 0.074 0.000 0.060
9_4 0.915 0.000 0.085 0.000
9_5 0.914 0.022 0.064 0.000
9_7 0.883 0.000 0.000 0.117
9_8 0.858 0.000 0.115 0.026
9_9 0.915 0.000 0.000 0.085

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
9_1 cJ20_J22 0.9999916 P05_07 0.4169323 pandemic 0.2014359
9_10 cJ20_J22 0.9469910 ach_noj 0.9330503 P00_99 0.7493915
9_11 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.8784756 P00_99 0.2004079
9_12 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P05_07 0.0950908 Q00_99 0.0700127
9_13 ach_noj 0.6255592 Q00_99 0.5609719 P00_99 0.4705289
9_14 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.8618563 P00_99 0.4479600
9_15 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 A10_B99_nopneumo 0.8985148 ach_noj 0.3872591
9_16 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P05_07 0.5362778 P00_99 0.1366174
9_17 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.1490849 Q00_99 0.0987553
9_19 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.8664217 P05_07 0.7134974
9_2 Q00_99 0.4136177 pandemic 0.1953168 ach_noj 0.1909305
9_20 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 pandemic 0.0792196 P00_99 0.0622412
9_21 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.1750941 ach_noj 0.1174440
9_22 P00_99 0.8717769 ach_noj 0.8033679 Q00_99 0.2169534
9_23 pandemic 0.4097300 ach_noj 0.3976598 P00_99 0.3972110
9_24 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P05_07 0.8727844 ach_noj 0.1844684
9_25 cJ20_J22 0.9999855 Q00_99 0.2668553 ach_noj 0.1422765
9_26 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.1240568 P00_99 0.1047922
9_27 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P05_07 0.8875462 P00_99 0.5040923
9_28 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.4190721 ach_noj 0.0698622
9_29 cJ20_J22 0.9993200 ach_noj 0.6945356 P00_99 0.2491497
9_30 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.2607660 K00_99 0.1965127
9_31 pandemic 0.6961880 ach_noj 0.2199583 P00_99 0.2057447
9_32 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 Q00_99 0.1488714 ach_noj 0.1292689
9_4 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.5445334 P05_07 0.4241328
9_5 cJ20_J22 0.9895016 pandemic 0.1441978 P00_99 0.1061077
9_7 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.3585018 ach_noj 0.3072127
9_8 cJ20_J22 0.9999892 pandemic 0.2207887 K00_99 0.1075921
9_9 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 A10_B99_nopneumo 0.8913269 Z00_99 0.5163238

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 1 Inclusion Probability of Control 1 Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 2 Inclusion Probability of Control 2 Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 3 Inclusion Probability of Control 3 Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
9_1 0.85 (0.6, 1.22) cJ20_J22 1 0.87 (0.53, 1.36) P05_07 0.42 0.84 (0.53, 1.34) pandemic 0.2 0.83 (0.52, 1.3)
9_10 1.25 (0.82, 1.87) cJ20_J22 0.95 1.07 (0.69, 1.68) ach_noj 0.93 0.94 (0.64, 1.37) P00_99 0.75 0.95 (0.67, 1.37)
9_11 1.07 (0.89, 1.29) cJ20_J22 1 1.18 (0.91, 1.5) ach_noj 0.88 1.18 (0.92, 1.53) P00_99 0.2 1.17 (0.91, 1.51)
9_12 0.69 (0.57, 0.86) cJ20_J22 1 0.58 (0.43, 0.77) P05_07 0.1 0.58 (0.44, 0.76) Q00_99 0.07 0.58 (0.43, 0.77)
9_13 0.85 (0.48, 1.35) ach_noj 0.63 0.93 (0.53, 1.39) Q00_99 0.56 0.91 (0.51, 1.39) P00_99 0.47 0.91 (0.49, 1.4)
9_14 1.25 (1.03, 1.52) cJ20_J22 1 1.21 (0.94, 1.55) ach_noj 0.86 1.16 (0.9, 1.5) P00_99 0.45 1.17 (0.9, 1.52)
9_15 0.8 (0.66, 1) cJ20_J22 1 0.72 (0.54, 0.98) A10_B99_nopneumo 0.9 0.83 (0.61, 1.12) ach_noj 0.39 0.75 (0.57, 0.98)
9_16 0.86 (0.67, 1.1) cJ20_J22 1 0.83 (0.57, 1.2) P05_07 0.54 0.86 (0.61, 1.22) P00_99 0.14 0.91 (0.65, 1.26)
9_17 0.58 (0.44, 0.76) cJ20_J22 1 0.51 (0.34, 0.77) ach_noj 0.15 0.48 (0.33, 0.67) Q00_99 0.1 0.48 (0.33, 0.68)
9_19 0.78 (0.53, 1.1) cJ20_J22 1 1.01 (0.63, 1.53) P00_99 0.87 0.9 (0.59, 1.31) P05_07 0.71 0.83 (0.56, 1.23)
9_2 1.01 (0.72, 1.4) Q00_99 0.41 1.03 (0.74, 1.4) pandemic 0.2 1.02 (0.73, 1.4) ach_noj 0.19 1.02 (0.73, 1.42)
9_20 1.03 (0.86, 1.24) cJ20_J22 1 0.68 (0.48, 0.96) pandemic 0.08 0.7 (0.49, 0.99) P00_99 0.06 0.74 (0.54, 1.04)
9_21 0.86 (0.67, 1.07) cJ20_J22 1 0.57 (0.42, 0.77) P00_99 0.18 0.62 (0.46, 0.81) ach_noj 0.12 0.67 (0.48, 0.9)
9_22 0.76 (0.5, 1.14) P00_99 0.87 0.64 (0.44, 0.95) ach_noj 0.8 0.62 (0.44, 0.89) Q00_99 0.22 0.62 (0.44, 0.87)
9_23 0.69 (0.47, 1.02) pandemic 0.41 0.69 (0.46, 1.02) ach_noj 0.4 0.7 (0.47, 1.03) P00_99 0.4 0.68 (0.46, 1)
9_24 0.73 (0.57, 0.94) cJ20_J22 1 0.84 (0.64, 1.11) P05_07 0.87 0.83 (0.64, 1.08) ach_noj 0.18 0.83 (0.64, 1.08)
9_25 0.7 (0.53, 0.93) cJ20_J22 1 0.83 (0.58, 1.16) Q00_99 0.27 0.83 (0.58, 1.16) ach_noj 0.14 0.84 (0.59, 1.17)
9_26 0.78 (0.6, 1.07) cJ20_J22 1 0.89 (0.63, 1.34) ach_noj 0.12 0.88 (0.62, 1.32) P00_99 0.1 0.85 (0.61, 1.14)
9_27 1.01 (0.82, 1.25) cJ20_J22 1 0.66 (0.5, 0.86) P05_07 0.89 0.64 (0.49, 0.84) P00_99 0.5 0.69 (0.53, 0.9)
9_28 0.68 (0.53, 0.92) cJ20_J22 1 0.77 (0.53, 1.13) P00_99 0.42 0.67 (0.5, 0.89) ach_noj 0.07 0.66 (0.5, 0.89)
9_29 0.95 (0.63, 1.43) cJ20_J22 1 0.83 (0.55, 1.24) ach_noj 0.69 0.83 (0.55, 1.26) P00_99 0.25 0.83 (0.56, 1.26)
9_30 0.82 (0.67, 1.04) cJ20_J22 1 0.72 (0.55, 0.95) P00_99 0.26 0.72 (0.55, 0.94) K00_99 0.2 0.72 (0.55, 0.95)
9_31 0.89 (0.54, 1.38) pandemic 0.7 0.91 (0.57, 1.39) ach_noj 0.22 0.92 (0.58, 1.39) P00_99 0.21 0.94 (0.64, 1.42)
9_32 0.66 (0.47, 0.9) cJ20_J22 1 0.74 (0.46, 1.11) Q00_99 0.15 0.74 (0.48, 1.11) ach_noj 0.13 0.75 (0.48, 1.12)
9_4 0.85 (0.61, 1.18) cJ20_J22 1 0.8 (0.51, 1.19) P00_99 0.54 0.81 (0.53, 1.19) P05_07 0.42 0.82 (0.56, 1.21)
9_5 1.05 (0.75, 1.45) cJ20_J22 0.99 1 (0.67, 1.43) pandemic 0.14 0.99 (0.67, 1.43) P00_99 0.11 1.01 (0.69, 1.44)
9_7 0.92 (0.75, 1.13) cJ20_J22 1 0.91 (0.71, 1.17) P00_99 0.36 0.88 (0.69, 1.12) ach_noj 0.31 1.15 (0.86, 1.6)
9_8 1.62 (1.32, 1.99) cJ20_J22 1 1.72 (1.31, 2.2) pandemic 0.22 1.73 (1.32, 2.23) K00_99 0.11 1.62 (1.24, 2.11)
9_9 0.98 (0.82, 1.17) cJ20_J22 1 1.06 (0.8, 1.44) A10_B99_nopneumo 0.89 1.12 (0.81, 1.56) Z00_99 0.52 1.12 (0.8, 1.53)

Plots

9_1

9_10

9_11

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9_12

9_13

9_14

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9_15

9_16

9_17

9_19

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9_2

9_20

9_21

9_22

9_23

9_24

9_25

9_26

9_27

9_28

9_29

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9_30

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9_31

9_32

9_4

9_5

9_7

9_8

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9_9