Synthetic Controls
Report generated Saturday, September 01, 2018
Ecuador_state Results
combine estimates
| Stacking Estimate (95% CI) | SC Estimate (95% CI) | Time trend Estimate (95% CI) | Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) | STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9_1 | 0.86 (0.6, 1.21) | 0.85 (0.6, 1.22) | 0.88 (0.52, 1.45) | 0.72 (0.42, 1.19) | 0.83 (0.53, 1.26) |
| 9_10 | 1.29 (0.85, 1.99) | 1.25 (0.82, 1.87) | 1.31 (0.85, 2.04) | 1.34 (0.88, 2.04) | 1.32 (0.89, 2.01) |
| 9_11 | 1.07 (0.89, 1.31) | 1.07 (0.89, 1.29) | 1.35 (1, 1.81) | 1.2 (0.89, 1.62) | 1.12 (0.85, 1.46) |
| 9_12 | 0.69 (0.57, 0.87) | 0.69 (0.57, 0.86) | 0.58 (0.41, 0.84) | 0.56 (0.39, 0.79) | 0.54 (0.39, 0.73) |
| 9_13 | 0.88 (0.51, 1.45) | 0.85 (0.48, 1.35) | 0.93 (0.57, 1.54) | 0.78 (0.48, 1.26) | 0.91 (0.59, 1.38) |
| 9_14 | 1.25 (1.01, 1.57) | 1.25 (1.03, 1.52) | 1.28 (0.95, 1.71) | 0.69 (0.51, 0.93) | 1.19 (0.93, 1.51) |
| 9_15 | 0.8 (0.66, 1) | 0.8 (0.66, 1) | 0.85 (0.62, 1.16) | 0.81 (0.58, 1.13) | 0.66 (0.5, 0.87) |
| 9_16 | 0.86 (0.66, 1.1) | 0.86 (0.67, 1.1) | 0.85 (0.6, 1.19) | 0.81 (0.57, 1.14) | 0.76 (0.56, 1.04) |
| 9_17 | 0.57 (0.43, 0.77) | 0.58 (0.44, 0.76) | 0.53 (0.34, 0.82) | 0.48 (0.31, 0.74) | 0.51 (0.36, 0.72) |
| 9_19 | 0.92 (0.55, 1.88) | 0.78 (0.53, 1.1) | 1.38 (0.93, 2.03) | 1.36 (0.9, 2.03) | 1.62 (1.02, 2.6) |
| 9_2 | 1.14 (0.76, 1.71) | 1.01 (0.72, 1.4) | 1.15 (0.77, 1.73) | 1.07 (0.72, 1.59) | 1.01 (0.67, 1.45) |
| 9_20 | 1.03 (0.86, 1.24) | 1.03 (0.86, 1.24) | 0.76 (0.54, 1.1) | 0.68 (0.47, 0.98) | 0.71 (0.52, 0.96) |
| 9_21 | 0.86 (0.57, 1.08) | 0.86 (0.67, 1.07) | 0.65 (0.46, 0.92) | 0.54 (0.38, 0.77) | 0.57 (0.43, 0.75) |
| 9_22 | 1.08 (0.72, 1.67) | 0.76 (0.5, 1.14) | 1.1 (0.75, 1.67) | 1.09 (0.74, 1.67) | 0.86 (0.61, 1.19) |
| 9_23 | 0.8 (0.49, 1.39) | 0.69 (0.47, 1.02) | 0.82 (0.48, 1.41) | 0.45 (0.28, 0.71) | 0.72 (0.5, 1.07) |
| 9_24 | 0.74 (0.57, 0.97) | 0.73 (0.57, 0.94) | 0.93 (0.66, 1.31) | 0.84 (0.6, 1.16) | 0.81 (0.59, 1.1) |
| 9_25 | 0.7 (0.53, 0.95) | 0.7 (0.53, 0.93) | 0.84 (0.56, 1.25) | 0.7 (0.48, 1.03) | 0.74 (0.53, 1.03) |
| 9_26 | 0.78 (0.58, 1.07) | 0.78 (0.6, 1.07) | 0.74 (0.49, 1.11) | 0.98 (0.66, 1.4) | 1.18 (0.73, 1.84) |
| 9_27 | 1.01 (0.82, 1.25) | 1.01 (0.82, 1.25) | 0.66 (0.46, 0.93) | 0.49 (0.35, 0.66) | 0.73 (0.57, 0.92) |
| 9_28 | 0.69 (0.54, 0.96) | 0.68 (0.53, 0.92) | 0.88 (0.62, 1.26) | 0.91 (0.64, 1.29) | 0.82 (0.61, 1.11) |
| 9_29 | 0.96 (0.63, 1.46) | 0.95 (0.63, 1.43) | 1.08 (0.65, 1.76) | 1.01 (0.61, 1.66) | 0.99 (0.63, 1.55) |
| 9_30 | 0.82 (0.66, 1.05) | 0.82 (0.67, 1.04) | 0.83 (0.59, 1.19) | 0.66 (0.47, 0.92) | 0.7 (0.53, 0.92) |
| 9_31 | 0.91 (0.54, 1.49) | 0.89 (0.54, 1.38) | 0.94 (0.58, 1.55) | 0.9 (0.55, 1.49) | 0.88 (0.57, 1.35) |
| 9_32 | 0.66 (0.46, 0.95) | 0.66 (0.47, 0.9) | 0.73 (0.42, 1.23) | 0.53 (0.33, 0.82) | 0.64 (0.43, 0.92) |
| 9_4 | 0.85 (0.6, 1.21) | 0.85 (0.61, 1.18) | 0.93 (0.57, 1.53) | 0.9 (0.55, 1.48) | 0.79 (0.54, 1.16) |
| 9_5 | 1.04 (0.72, 1.45) | 1.05 (0.75, 1.45) | 0.87 (0.56, 1.35) | 0.91 (0.59, 1.36) | 0.84 (0.57, 1.24) |
| 9_7 | 0.91 (0.54, 1.12) | 0.92 (0.75, 1.13) | 0.96 (0.73, 1.26) | 1.02 (0.77, 1.38) | 0.61 (0.46, 0.83) |
| 9_8 | 1.6 (1.13, 1.98) | 1.62 (1.32, 1.99) | 2.27 (1.61, 3.2) | 1.29 (0.93, 1.76) | 1.58 (1.22, 2.04) |
| 9_9 | 0.98 (0.82, 1.18) | 0.98 (0.82, 1.17) | 0.96 (0.71, 1.31) | 0.9 (0.65, 1.25) | 0.97 (0.77, 1.2) |
Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights
Weights for each of the models from cross validation
| groups | Synthetic Controls | Time trend | Time trend (no offset) | STL+PCA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9_1 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 9_10 | 0.431 | 0.000 | 0.209 | 0.360 |
| 9_11 | 0.972 | 0.000 | 0.028 | 0.000 |
| 9_12 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 9_13 | 0.330 | 0.524 | 0.147 | 0.000 |
| 9_14 | 0.828 | 0.172 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 9_15 | 0.987 | 0.000 | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| 9_16 | 0.975 | 0.000 | 0.025 | 0.000 |
| 9_17 | 0.937 | 0.063 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 9_19 | 0.614 | 0.371 | 0.000 | 0.014 |
| 9_2 | 0.004 | 0.800 | 0.196 | 0.000 |
| 9_20 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 9_21 | 0.961 | 0.000 | 0.039 | 0.000 |
| 9_22 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.959 | 0.041 |
| 9_23 | 0.000 | 0.822 | 0.000 | 0.178 |
| 9_24 | 0.951 | 0.000 | 0.049 | 0.000 |
| 9_25 | 0.860 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.140 |
| 9_26 | 0.888 | 0.112 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 9_27 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 9_28 | 0.908 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.092 |
| 9_29 | 0.701 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.299 |
| 9_30 | 0.966 | 0.034 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 9_31 | 0.214 | 0.239 | 0.547 | 0.000 |
| 9_32 | 0.866 | 0.074 | 0.000 | 0.060 |
| 9_4 | 0.915 | 0.000 | 0.085 | 0.000 |
| 9_5 | 0.914 | 0.022 | 0.064 | 0.000 |
| 9_7 | 0.883 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.117 |
| 9_8 | 0.858 | 0.000 | 0.115 | 0.026 |
| 9_9 | 0.915 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.085 |
Inclusion Probabilities
| Group | Greatest Inclusion Variable | Greatest Inclusion Probability | Second Greatest Inclusion Variable | Second Greatest Inclusion Probability | Third Greatest Inclusion Variable | Third Greatest Inclusion Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9_1 | cJ20_J22 | 0.9999916 | P05_07 | 0.4169323 | pandemic | 0.2014359 |
| 9_10 | cJ20_J22 | 0.9469910 | ach_noj | 0.9330503 | P00_99 | 0.7493915 |
| 9_11 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | ach_noj | 0.8784756 | P00_99 | 0.2004079 |
| 9_12 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | P05_07 | 0.0950908 | Q00_99 | 0.0700127 |
| 9_13 | ach_noj | 0.6255592 | Q00_99 | 0.5609719 | P00_99 | 0.4705289 |
| 9_14 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | ach_noj | 0.8618563 | P00_99 | 0.4479600 |
| 9_15 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.8985148 | ach_noj | 0.3872591 |
| 9_16 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | P05_07 | 0.5362778 | P00_99 | 0.1366174 |
| 9_17 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | ach_noj | 0.1490849 | Q00_99 | 0.0987553 |
| 9_19 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | P00_99 | 0.8664217 | P05_07 | 0.7134974 |
| 9_2 | Q00_99 | 0.4136177 | pandemic | 0.1953168 | ach_noj | 0.1909305 |
| 9_20 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | pandemic | 0.0792196 | P00_99 | 0.0622412 |
| 9_21 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | P00_99 | 0.1750941 | ach_noj | 0.1174440 |
| 9_22 | P00_99 | 0.8717769 | ach_noj | 0.8033679 | Q00_99 | 0.2169534 |
| 9_23 | pandemic | 0.4097300 | ach_noj | 0.3976598 | P00_99 | 0.3972110 |
| 9_24 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | P05_07 | 0.8727844 | ach_noj | 0.1844684 |
| 9_25 | cJ20_J22 | 0.9999855 | Q00_99 | 0.2668553 | ach_noj | 0.1422765 |
| 9_26 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | ach_noj | 0.1240568 | P00_99 | 0.1047922 |
| 9_27 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | P05_07 | 0.8875462 | P00_99 | 0.5040923 |
| 9_28 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | P00_99 | 0.4190721 | ach_noj | 0.0698622 |
| 9_29 | cJ20_J22 | 0.9993200 | ach_noj | 0.6945356 | P00_99 | 0.2491497 |
| 9_30 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | P00_99 | 0.2607660 | K00_99 | 0.1965127 |
| 9_31 | pandemic | 0.6961880 | ach_noj | 0.2199583 | P00_99 | 0.2057447 |
| 9_32 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | Q00_99 | 0.1488714 | ach_noj | 0.1292689 |
| 9_4 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | P00_99 | 0.5445334 | P05_07 | 0.4241328 |
| 9_5 | cJ20_J22 | 0.9895016 | pandemic | 0.1441978 | P00_99 | 0.1061077 |
| 9_7 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | P00_99 | 0.3585018 | ach_noj | 0.3072127 |
| 9_8 | cJ20_J22 | 0.9999892 | pandemic | 0.2207887 | K00_99 | 0.1075921 |
| 9_9 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.8913269 | Z00_99 | 0.5163238 |
Weight Sensitivity Analysis
| Estimate (95% CI) | Top Control 1 | Inclusion Probability of Control 1 | Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) | Top Control 2 | Inclusion Probability of Control 2 | Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) | Top Control 3 | Inclusion Probability of Control 3 | Control 3 Estimate (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9_1 | 0.85 (0.6, 1.22) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.87 (0.53, 1.36) | P05_07 | 0.42 | 0.84 (0.53, 1.34) | pandemic | 0.2 | 0.83 (0.52, 1.3) |
| 9_10 | 1.25 (0.82, 1.87) | cJ20_J22 | 0.95 | 1.07 (0.69, 1.68) | ach_noj | 0.93 | 0.94 (0.64, 1.37) | P00_99 | 0.75 | 0.95 (0.67, 1.37) |
| 9_11 | 1.07 (0.89, 1.29) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 1.18 (0.91, 1.5) | ach_noj | 0.88 | 1.18 (0.92, 1.53) | P00_99 | 0.2 | 1.17 (0.91, 1.51) |
| 9_12 | 0.69 (0.57, 0.86) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.58 (0.43, 0.77) | P05_07 | 0.1 | 0.58 (0.44, 0.76) | Q00_99 | 0.07 | 0.58 (0.43, 0.77) |
| 9_13 | 0.85 (0.48, 1.35) | ach_noj | 0.63 | 0.93 (0.53, 1.39) | Q00_99 | 0.56 | 0.91 (0.51, 1.39) | P00_99 | 0.47 | 0.91 (0.49, 1.4) |
| 9_14 | 1.25 (1.03, 1.52) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 1.21 (0.94, 1.55) | ach_noj | 0.86 | 1.16 (0.9, 1.5) | P00_99 | 0.45 | 1.17 (0.9, 1.52) |
| 9_15 | 0.8 (0.66, 1) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.72 (0.54, 0.98) | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.9 | 0.83 (0.61, 1.12) | ach_noj | 0.39 | 0.75 (0.57, 0.98) |
| 9_16 | 0.86 (0.67, 1.1) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.83 (0.57, 1.2) | P05_07 | 0.54 | 0.86 (0.61, 1.22) | P00_99 | 0.14 | 0.91 (0.65, 1.26) |
| 9_17 | 0.58 (0.44, 0.76) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.51 (0.34, 0.77) | ach_noj | 0.15 | 0.48 (0.33, 0.67) | Q00_99 | 0.1 | 0.48 (0.33, 0.68) |
| 9_19 | 0.78 (0.53, 1.1) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 1.01 (0.63, 1.53) | P00_99 | 0.87 | 0.9 (0.59, 1.31) | P05_07 | 0.71 | 0.83 (0.56, 1.23) |
| 9_2 | 1.01 (0.72, 1.4) | Q00_99 | 0.41 | 1.03 (0.74, 1.4) | pandemic | 0.2 | 1.02 (0.73, 1.4) | ach_noj | 0.19 | 1.02 (0.73, 1.42) |
| 9_20 | 1.03 (0.86, 1.24) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.68 (0.48, 0.96) | pandemic | 0.08 | 0.7 (0.49, 0.99) | P00_99 | 0.06 | 0.74 (0.54, 1.04) |
| 9_21 | 0.86 (0.67, 1.07) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.57 (0.42, 0.77) | P00_99 | 0.18 | 0.62 (0.46, 0.81) | ach_noj | 0.12 | 0.67 (0.48, 0.9) |
| 9_22 | 0.76 (0.5, 1.14) | P00_99 | 0.87 | 0.64 (0.44, 0.95) | ach_noj | 0.8 | 0.62 (0.44, 0.89) | Q00_99 | 0.22 | 0.62 (0.44, 0.87) |
| 9_23 | 0.69 (0.47, 1.02) | pandemic | 0.41 | 0.69 (0.46, 1.02) | ach_noj | 0.4 | 0.7 (0.47, 1.03) | P00_99 | 0.4 | 0.68 (0.46, 1) |
| 9_24 | 0.73 (0.57, 0.94) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.84 (0.64, 1.11) | P05_07 | 0.87 | 0.83 (0.64, 1.08) | ach_noj | 0.18 | 0.83 (0.64, 1.08) |
| 9_25 | 0.7 (0.53, 0.93) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.83 (0.58, 1.16) | Q00_99 | 0.27 | 0.83 (0.58, 1.16) | ach_noj | 0.14 | 0.84 (0.59, 1.17) |
| 9_26 | 0.78 (0.6, 1.07) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.89 (0.63, 1.34) | ach_noj | 0.12 | 0.88 (0.62, 1.32) | P00_99 | 0.1 | 0.85 (0.61, 1.14) |
| 9_27 | 1.01 (0.82, 1.25) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.66 (0.5, 0.86) | P05_07 | 0.89 | 0.64 (0.49, 0.84) | P00_99 | 0.5 | 0.69 (0.53, 0.9) |
| 9_28 | 0.68 (0.53, 0.92) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.77 (0.53, 1.13) | P00_99 | 0.42 | 0.67 (0.5, 0.89) | ach_noj | 0.07 | 0.66 (0.5, 0.89) |
| 9_29 | 0.95 (0.63, 1.43) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.83 (0.55, 1.24) | ach_noj | 0.69 | 0.83 (0.55, 1.26) | P00_99 | 0.25 | 0.83 (0.56, 1.26) |
| 9_30 | 0.82 (0.67, 1.04) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.72 (0.55, 0.95) | P00_99 | 0.26 | 0.72 (0.55, 0.94) | K00_99 | 0.2 | 0.72 (0.55, 0.95) |
| 9_31 | 0.89 (0.54, 1.38) | pandemic | 0.7 | 0.91 (0.57, 1.39) | ach_noj | 0.22 | 0.92 (0.58, 1.39) | P00_99 | 0.21 | 0.94 (0.64, 1.42) |
| 9_32 | 0.66 (0.47, 0.9) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.74 (0.46, 1.11) | Q00_99 | 0.15 | 0.74 (0.48, 1.11) | ach_noj | 0.13 | 0.75 (0.48, 1.12) |
| 9_4 | 0.85 (0.61, 1.18) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.8 (0.51, 1.19) | P00_99 | 0.54 | 0.81 (0.53, 1.19) | P05_07 | 0.42 | 0.82 (0.56, 1.21) |
| 9_5 | 1.05 (0.75, 1.45) | cJ20_J22 | 0.99 | 1 (0.67, 1.43) | pandemic | 0.14 | 0.99 (0.67, 1.43) | P00_99 | 0.11 | 1.01 (0.69, 1.44) |
| 9_7 | 0.92 (0.75, 1.13) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.91 (0.71, 1.17) | P00_99 | 0.36 | 0.88 (0.69, 1.12) | ach_noj | 0.31 | 1.15 (0.86, 1.6) |
| 9_8 | 1.62 (1.32, 1.99) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 1.72 (1.31, 2.2) | pandemic | 0.22 | 1.73 (1.32, 2.23) | K00_99 | 0.11 | 1.62 (1.24, 2.11) |
| 9_9 | 0.98 (0.82, 1.17) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 1.06 (0.8, 1.44) | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.89 | 1.12 (0.81, 1.56) | Z00_99 | 0.52 | 1.12 (0.8, 1.53) |
Plots
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9_12
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9_30
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9_9
